Jannik Sinner, for the third match in a row, experienced a noticeable dip in his level of play during the second set, raising some concerns about his conditioning. However, just as in his previous matches, he managed to reset quickly and regain control, closing out with authority. He defeated Alex de Minaur in three sets in the Beijing semifinals, extending his flawless record against the Australian to 11-0.
Sinner has yet to consistently hit his top gear in this Beijing campaign, but even below his peak, he has been a difficult obstacle for opponents to overcome. By reaching another final, he extends an impressive hard-court streak in 2025, as he has not lost to anyone other than Carlos Alcaraz on the surface this year.
Moreover, the world No. 2 is now into his ninth consecutive final at a tour-level hard-court event, a streak that began at the 2024 Cincinnati Masters. This remarkable run places him tied for fourth on the all-time list for most consecutive finals on hard courts, trailing only Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andre Agassi, and Ivan Lendl. The streak further strengthens his case as the leading hard-court player in the game right now.
Sinner has won 13 of his 14 matches in Beijing and has reached the final in each of his previous two appearances. He captured arguably the most significant title of his career here on debut in 2023, a breakthrough that transformed him into a different force on tour. During his title-defense campaign in 2024, he came close to beating Carlos Alcaraz in the final but was unable to capitalize on his chances.
The Italian’s record in finals this season may appear poor at 2–4, but all four defeats have come against his chief rival Carlos Alcaraz. He has not lost a championship match to any other player since the ATP Finals in November 2023. By choosing to compete at a different tournament than Alcaraz this week, Sinner has given himself a strong chance to secure a much-needed title and end his two-match losing streak in finals.
Learner Tien benefited from Daniil Medvedev’s cramping and physical struggles in the semifinals, as he rallied from a 5-7, 1-4 deficit before advancing via retirement. Still, the way he stayed ready to fight until the end and found a way through mirrors the blueprint that brought him success on the lower-level circuits last year. He has managed to replicate that same resilience on the main tour this season, making an immediate impression and climbing the rankings at a rapid pace.
Just a year ago, Tien was competing on the Challenger circuit in the United States. Now he is preparing to face the world No. 2 in an ATP 500 final with a title on the line. This is the best result of his career at tour level, and with this run he becomes only the third teenager to reach a final on the main tour in 2025, joining Jakub Mensik and Joao Fonseca, both of whom went on to win their finals.
One of the most impressive aspects of Tien’s development during his first full season on the main tour in 2025 has been his ability to rise to the challenge against top players, as he showed most recently against Daniil Medvedev in the Beijing semifinals. Against top-10 players specifically, he holds an excellent 5-2 record this year, ranking only behind Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner for most top-10 victories in 2025.
A title may be an unrealistic target for the American teenager with Vietnamese roots, but he still stands to gain plenty from this run, particularly the experience of facing Jannik Sinner on hard courts. Tien began 2024 ranked outside the top 400 and had just three tour-level main-draw wins to his name before this season. Now he is set to break into the top 40 for the first time in his career.
Head-to-head: 0-0. Jannik Sinner has shown some vulnerabilities over the last few days, but they have not been punished, and it is unlikely they will be exploited in the final. He is expected to follow the path of his rival Carlos Alcaraz, who won the Tokyo title on Tuesday, and claim the Beijing crown. If successful, this will mark the first time both the world No. 1 and No. 2 have won ATP titles in the same week since Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal did so in 2020.