Atl. Madrid v Rayo Vallecano (24/09/2025)

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Atlético Madrid return to the Metropolitano under pressure to respond after letting a 1-0 lead slip late on against Mallorca, while city rivals Rayo Vallecano will be hoping to build on their solid 1-1 draw with Celta Vigo.

Match News and Current Form

Atlético’s draw with lowly Mallorca on Sunday doesn’t look as poor as the result may suggest when taking into account that they finished the game with ten men courtesy of Alexander Sørloth’s 72nd-minute red card. That result - which also included a missed penalty for Atlético - extended their run to one win from their six competitive games of 2025/26 (D3, L2), putting some pressure on long-term boss Diego Simeone. He’ll be particularly frustrated that his side are showing a vulnerability late on, with game-changing goals conceded beyond the 84th minute in their last two matches. 

Rayo Vallecano would love to pile on the misery for their neighbours, although they have lost that winning touch themselves recently, with no success in three games (D2, L1). That comes after winning three of their four competitive games prior to that run (L1). The visitors did at least come back from one goal down to draw 1-1 in both stalemates of their current three-game winless streak, and that’s a scoreline that mirrors the one between these two in this fixture 12 months ago.

Head-to-Head History

That draw was the only clash from the past five H2H meetings that didn’t end in a victory for Atlético, while February 2013 was the last time that Rayo came out on top in this fixture. There have been 18 competitive meetings since (D4, L14)! 

Win Probability
Win ProbabilityOpta by StatsPerform

Hot Stats and Streaks

Atlético are undefeated since early April at the Metropolitano (W5, D1). 

Atlético scored before half-time in each of their past four home H2Hs against Rayo. 

Each of Rayo’s last four La Liga games produced under 2.5 total goals. 

Rayo have conceded 13 goals across the last four H2Hs while scoring just twice. 

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

Julián Alvarez, who scored against Rayo in April, returned from injury to boost Atlético on Sunday but will be hoping to make up for a missed penalty in that game. Álvaro García, who assisted Rayo’s goal against Celta, has scored two of his side’s past four competitive goals on the road. 

Atlético quartet Álex Baena, José María Giménez, Thiago Almada and Johnny Cardoso are expected to still be out for this one, while Rayo Vallecano look to have no fresh injury issues. 

For all the latest team news, please check the Flashscore match centre.

Betting Analysis

Despite their patchy start to the season, Atlético’s dominant H2H record and form at home mean we are anticipating Atlético Madrid to win by 2+ goals.

Author: David H

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